Self-Transfer in IST

Classic scenario, but with specificity, plus a little war thrown in. I'll be flying from Hong Kong on Sechuan Airlines in two weeks, to a 4h10m layover (630a - 1040a) in IST. Then I do a self-transfer to Athens, Greece, on Aegean Airlines.

What are my odds for a successful transfer of a single checked bag?

It looks like my incoming flight is pretty likely to be on time or even early, unless a black-swan event occurs, and my outbound flight is usually on time or a little late. In this case, I imagine the war would only help my chances of making this transfer.

Thanks in advance.